The art of statesmanship is to foresee the inevitable and to expedite its occurrence.
No dead Castros yet,dead?i believe previous references by EJM I, towArds mr. fidel, in particular, having achieved room temperature are more colorful.
Sorry LL. Perhaps my disappointment that the Tyrant is still our problem explains my somewhat bland reaction.
I'm really, really interested to see what will happen when Castro does die.
My bet would be nothing...immediately. Raul Castro, who runs the Army and the police, will see that it doesn't. Chavez can and will prop the thing up for awhile with oil cash. But he has his own problems.Eventually, though, somebody's going to decide to take baby-steps to rejoin the world. I'm sure they're going to try a modified Vietnam/Chinese formula (open up economically, but keep the lid on politically); as opposed to the Gorbachev method (open up politically, sort of, but protect [sort of] the state economy, and give everybody vodka). I think it will be hard for the China method to work: the place is too small, too close to Florida and once the door is open at all, it's going to be a flood of newness that will drown the whole system.I tend to think long run the Castro system goes, and the whole thing is just seen as a ghastly detour -- an episode that set them back 75 years. The Euros and Canadians will pour-in money, as will the Miami crowd. Whether that actually works out well for the Cubans -- or just makes them hired help in a giant sugar-plantation, resort, casino -- is less easy to see.
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